操作管理-決策工具(ppt 28頁)

Outline
The Decision Process in Operations
Fundamentals of Decision Making
Decision Tables
Decision Making Under Risk
Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)
Decision Trees
A More Complex Decision Tree
Learning Objectives
State the decision process
Describe decision tables & trees
Explain decision making under risk
Compute expected monetary value
Use decision tables & trees to make decisions
Models, and the Techniques of Scientific Management Can Help Managers To:
Gain deeper insight into the nature of business relationships
Find better ways to assess values in such relationships; and
See a way of reducing, or at least understanding, uncertainty that
surrounds business plans and actions
Steps to Good Decisions
Define problem & influencing factors
Establish decision criteria
Select decision-making tool (model)
Identify & evaluate alternatives using decision-making tool (model)
Select best alternative
Implement decision

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